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Interest rate hike likely in October says TD economist


by Steve Randall20 Aug 2018

The cost of living was higher in July as energy prices and interest rates added to household expenditure.

Data from Statistics Canada show that the Consumer Price Index was up 3% on an annual basis following June’s 2.5% increase.

The largest influence on the CPI was the continued rise in energy costs, up 14.7% year-over-year, with gasoline up 25.4% and fuel oil and other fuels rising more than 28%.

The mortgage interest index was up 5.2% in the 12 months to July on the impact of the BoC’s interest rate rises.

There were also notable increases in the cost of transportation, air travel, and travel tours; and telephone services.

In all provinces, prices rose more in July on a year-over-year basis compared with the previous month.

The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation remained stable in July.

“The relative stability of core inflation measures may give the Bank of Canada some solace,” commented TD Economics’ senior economist James Marple. “Still, with an economy beating expectations and a range of indicators pointing to limited excess capacity, maintaining stable inflation is likely to require further rate hikes by the central bank with the next one likely coming in October.”

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